Title: Impact of sustained lockdown during Covid-19 pandemic on behavioural dynamics through evolutionary game theoretic model

Author (s):: Premkumar P.; Chakrabarty J.B.; Rajeev A.

Journal: Annals of Operations Research

Month and Year: December 2023

Abstract: Pandemics are black swan events that present the world with unique challenges. Most often, people are ill equipped to deal with such challenges due to lack of first-hand experience of having dealt with a similar situation before. More importantly, panic among the general population adds to the unsurmountable challenges of handling such a situation. As a result, despite having the technical knowhow, lack of an understanding of how people would behave poses as the single common factor across similar crises. This study explores an evolutionary game theoretic model to analyse the behavioural patterns of people to arrive at evolutionary stable states. The prevalent evolutionary stable state will help the governments determine the course of action and help the governments to prolong the surge in number of cases. Our analyses and insights from real life data suggest that as the duration of restrictions increases, it becomes increasingly difficult to prolong the surge. We also develop a pandemic mitigation responsiveness index (PMRI) to validate our model using data from different countries of the world. The index is a measure of a country’s responsiveness to the pandemic. Further, we use this index in conjunction with Hofstede’s cultural dimension on IVR. Using Hofstede’s cultural dimension on IVR and our game-theoretic model, the governments can conduct a scenario analysis based on various levels of PMRI. Accordingly, they can take informed decisions on imposition of lockdown viz. the timing, the duration as well as the stringency of the lockdown. Based on this, the governments may also choose to impose the lockdown in phase-wise manner in the wake of a pandemic situation like the Covid-19 to control the economy as well as the influx of patients in a manageable way. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.

Document Type: Article

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-023-05743-2