Title: Value-at-Risk in the Presence of Structural Breaks Using Unbiased Extreme Value Volatility Estimator

Author (s):: Kumar D.

Journal: Journal of Quantitative Economics

Month and Year: January 2020

Abstract: We provide a framework based on the unbiased extreme value volatility estimator to predict long and short position value-at-risk (VaR). The given framework incorporates the impact of asymmetry, structural breaks and fat tails in volatility. We generate forecasts of long and short position VaR for the cases when future structural breaks are known as well as unknown. We evaluate its VaR forecasting performance using various backtesting approaches for both long and short positions and compare the results with that from return based models. Our findings indicate that incorporating the impact of structural breaks in volatility indeed improves the accuracy of VaR forecasts of the proposed framework. © 2020, The Indian Econometric Society.

Document Type: Article

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40953-020-00197-w